Crash of August 2007

Adjusted to 2008

Post July 31, 2007

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Capitulation

S&P 500 futures will break 1400

Support at 1391.50 or below depending if the trin fills the gap before hand.

Trin will return to 15.45 to fill the gap. The timing of the fill on this gap cannot be accurately assessed.  We only know that it will be filled, not when.  The future low of the market cannot be predicted simply on the basis of this pending trin gap. 

Spooman

Open Long Gaps for $TRIN

15.45

14.48


Gaps in Data

1400.00 1.32 20.08 11.87 20.34 5.79

1399.75 1.42 20.09 11.45 19.89 5.49

1398.50 1.40 19.85 11.63 19.65 5.61

1398.25 1.45 20.77 11.69 19.99 5.61

1398.00 1.45 20.64 11.76 20.02 5.80

1397.75 1.49 20.82 11.48 19.77 5.49

1397.50 1.48 20.71 11.28 20.01 5.59

market will fill this gap

1397.00 1.46 20.39 11.90 19.15 6.07

1396.75 1.44 20.28 11.74 19.87 5.91

1396.50 1.52 20.35 11.58 19.95 5.76

1396.25 1.61 20.88 11.58 20.72 6.74

1396.00 1.47 20.39 11.79 20.19 5.99

1395.75 1.70 20.97 11.70 19.40 6.47

1395.50 1.49 20.39 11.84 20.37 6.34

market will fill this gap

1395.00 1.91 21.07 11.66 20.24 5.95

market will fill this gap

1394.25 2.04 21.19 11.72 20.15 6.53

1394.00 1.74 20.74 11.26 18.45 5.16

market will fill this gap

1393.50 2.10 21.20 11.49 19.83 6.31

1393.25 2.09 21.19 11.88 19.89 6.22

market will fill this gap

1392.75 2.26 21.25 11.86 20.35 6.22

1372.75 0.96 12.49 9.84 16.24 4.77
1372.50 0.97 12.50 9.95 16.86 5.19
1372.25 1.04 12.53 10.08 16.98 5.40
1372.00 1.06 12.54 10.25 16.59 5.25

market will fill this gap

1371.50 1.21 12.61 10.17 17.09 5.87
1371.25 1.22 12.61 10.22 17.03 5.72
1370.00 1.26 12.72 9.85 17.11 5.59

Capitulation Expectations for 2008

Our initial target for a potential market reversal requires the following.

  • The vix must fill these outstanding gaps
  • 36.91 0.05
    36.58 0.06
    36.27 0.05
    36.23 0.21
    35.87 0.13
    35.23 0.05
  • The trin will return to 15.45
  • The spoos must fill the gap at 1371.75 created at 11:56 am on 9/25/06.  Adjusted price to March 2008 contract forthcoming